CS:GO Betting Guide
Before you start CS:GO betting
Firstly, ask yourself…
- Do I love CS:GO?
- Can I afford to spend $X on betting?
- Can I afford to lose $X on betting?
If the answer to any of those is NO, then save yourself the tears and stop before you start.
If you answered YES to all, take a look at the betting tips we recommend below.
Building an inventory
We recommend starting out with an overall inventory size, this is the amount you’re willing to lose if it all goes wrong. By fixing this amount in your mind, you’ve got a clear signal of when you should stop.
In order to cover a range of matches, betting stakes and risk levels a betting inventory of $50 – $200 would give you a large amount of flexibility and fair rewards. If you’re completely new to betting, start low.
If you don’t already have skins on your steam account. Sites like bitskins or opskins will allow you to buy in bulk and at a range of item prices, usually at a discount of 30% or so compared to the Steam Market pricing.
Aim for a range of items and sizes, for example, if your desired inventory is $100:
- 10 x $5 skins ($50)
- 10 x $2 skins ($20)
- 20 x $1 skins ($20)
- 20 x $0.50 skins ($10)
Placing your bets, how to pick your winner
Before you start looking at odds, decide for yourself who you think will win the match between the two teams.
Do your own research, the more you know the higher your chances of making a successful bet:
- Look at past match results between these two teams
If possible see if any players had huge performances which caused them to win, in a close series perhaps a team won a lot of clutches/both pistol rounds. Maybe different rosters played, has the roster improved/gotten worse since the swap.
- Check the maps
Check the teams success on maps are good at. Try to plan out the veto process in your head to see what the map(s) might come to. This could decide the series and give you a good idea on who will win the series.
- Check the event format
- ‘Best of 1’ Has a dramatically increased chance of an unexpected result.
- ‘Best of 2’ the favourite should be a more reliable bet, however a draw is possible
- ‘Best of 3’ in most cases the favourite should be able to recover but upsets are always possible
- ‘Best of 5’ a true test for any team to be consistent across multiple maps. The best teams should win this.
- Is the lineup consistent?
Look to see if the lineup is consistent or does the team win with certain players but not others. See if there are any standins for the match.
- Have the teams travelled far?
Check to see if the sides have recently travelled to/from a LAN event, as jet lag or long trips can affects a player’s performance.
- Check individual players practice times
Look at the player’s steam accounts for the hours played on CSGO the past two weeks. This is a pretty clear indicator of how much work they are putting in. You should be seeing above 40 hours for the past two weeks, anything below is pretty low for a professional player and they could be rusty.
- Look for late developments
Check the players social media accounts. Anger or sickness prior to a match are a good sign they’re not going to play on top form.
- Past match performances
If you have time, watch the team’s recent matches, see how they play and look for weaknesses or strengths. Make sure to note the teams form to see if they are currently slumping, or perhaps on a hot streak of form.
- Use predictor information
Look at what predictors are saying about the match. They will have all of this work done and have a good estimation of how the match should turn out. They’ll also recommend the size of bet to place and give a good idea at the amount of risk associated with this.
- How are the community betting?
Look at the bets the community tipsters are placing. Look at the highest ranked tipsters and see which way they’re betting.
- Talk to the betting community
Use the match chat to see if there’s any other final information you might be missing
- When using other, unproven information, take it in with a pinch of salt.
Individuals at times may attempt to sway users into making the bad bet in an attempt to sway the odds and return a greater profit for themselves. The individual(s) may over exaggerate/Make up false information so make sure you are a) Listening to reliable sources and b) Double checking any information you receive.
- Be careful of form
Seeing the form a team is currently is experiencing is great and should give you a general idea for the match, however do not fall into the trap that form = everything. Often times a team may be struggling, or doing really poorly, however that does not mean that it will continue, that spree may break at any time.
Always remember, the final decision to bet is yours.
Odds come in three different types. Decimal, Fractional or Implied Probability.
Decimal Odds e.g. 2.11
Decimal odds give you the easiest conversion from stake to return e.g.
Bet $5 with odds at 2.11
$5 x 2.11 = $10.55 return (including your original $5 stake)
Fractional Odds e.g. 2/1
Unless you’re into horse racing or the English, this shouldn’t come up.
Implied Probability e.g. 55%
This is shown as a percentage and is widely used across sites like csgolounge or if a predictor is summing up the implied chance the teams have e.g. 40% chance of team a winning. These odds aren’t generally set by the website and instead are community based.
In the case of csgolounge the odds are set based on value of skins placed on each team. This can be highly inaccurate at reflecting the real chance the team has of winning as the team fanbase will often skew the bets in their favour.
To calculate a return on probability odds use the following:
Decimal odds = 100 / probability odds
E.g. 100 / 55 = 1.81
So a $5 stake would return $9.05 ($4.05 profit)
At CSGOHUB we follow a rough guide for betting sizes ICB, small, medium and large. These relate to the stake of your bet relative to the size of your inventory.
Small = 1 – 5%
Medium = 6 – 10%
Large = 11 – 20%
ICB = <1% in skins you want to get rid of
This ensures that if your inventory shrinks or grows, your bets are offering the maximum return without risking everything.
If you’re only betting casually
As an extra precaution, you could use the same setup as above, except as your inventory grows, keep your stakes at fixed sizes. Your profits will be reduced but this drastically minimises the impact of a big loss.
Planning for success
Making a big win feels great, you’ll feel invincible (and very smug if it was an underdog). You’ll be tempted to throw that win straight back into more bets with a higher value. No matter how much you are winning, or losing, you should keep strict discipline on the bet sizing you are making. Bet sizing is one of the biggest reasons people go bankrupt, so make sure you are betting the appropriate amounts on each match.
Having a plan in place of how you’ll handle these wins ensures you think with a level head when it happens.
To build an inventory
Leave it in your inventory, readjust your stake sizes based on this new amount.
To make real money
With each big win, skim off a percentage (e.g. 10% – 30%) and sell/cashout the skins on websites like Opskins and Bitskins.
To get nice skins
Each time you win a skin you like, stop using it in your stakes (this could lower your inventory). As you win, win and win more, you will build a collection of skins you do not use in your stakes, you can either sell them on the market and buy a single bigger skin, or you can trade for a bigger skin.
Be careful with selling the skins on the Steam Market, Steam takes 15% of every sale.
To make CS:GO more fun to watch
Do you really need to place a bigger bet next time? Return your initial stake to your inventory and sell the rest
All bettors have a different approach and you’ll need to find something specific for your style.