Analysing Esports Bets

The aim of every punter is to place as many winning bets as possible, while keeping losses to a minimum. As you already know, betting successfully on eSports isn’t a matter of luck, if you’re not doing your homework, you might win a couple of bets, but you won’t have long term success.

Analysing eSports bets is no easy task, but it’s all about setting your priorities and learning what statistics you need in order to perform a valid analysis. Once you get the basics and learn how to analyse, doing the actual analysis would be much easier. The first thing that you will need to do is separate the important from the unimportant, the things will be a lot simpler. Still, that doesn’t mean that doing proper analysis doesn’t take time, you will need to put some effort in it.

Understand Value

Make sure you have a really strong understanding of betting odds, and remember that good value does not mean large odds.

Good value in betting is the size of the odds, relative to the chances of you winning your e-sports bet.

Likewise, just because a team has big odds as favourites to win a match, it doesn’t mean betting on this is a wise move that guarantees a win. Try to calculate how those odds reflect the probability of the team winning and decide if you feel that is an accurate likelihood based on your research.

While it seems like such a simple concept, many gamblers don’t ever consider the value of a bet in this way, and merely look at how long the odds are.

At this point you are gambling much like at a casino, rather than at sports; relying on blind luck rather than knowledge to get you the win.

Calculating Probability

The odds imply the probability of an event to happen. With the vig the odds are stacked against you, but that doesn’t mean all odds for all selections across all markets. Decimal odds are the simplest to convert into probability. Just divide one by the odds and then multiple the result by 100. For instance, if the odds are 1.70, divide 1 by 1.70, it is 0.588 and then multiply it by hundred – 58.8. So the probability is 58.8%.

By converting the odds into probability you get a clearer picture of how likely is for something to happen. For example, a bet at odds 5.00 might not seem that improbable, but you should know that the odds are just 20%, which means that the chances for the opposite outcome are 80%.

Make a Staking Plan

Your staking plan defines how much you will place on the bets that you make. The successful gambler will always have one in place.

It is important for many reasons, but most notably because it control how much you place on each bet, thus reducing your chances of going bust, and helping you get a good return.

You should try to make sure you have a reasonable bankroll for your e-sports betting, while still knowing your limits and not taking chances on your personal finance. Bet what you can afford.

Still, if you want to potentially be a long term winner, you’re not going to do it on the odd occasional bet.

You should always keep a record of your bets too. This will make sure you are keeping to your staking plan, and within your budget. It can also help you to analyse where you are going wrong.

Analysing Odds and Probabilities

Your main focus when you’re analysing bets is whether or not the odds match the actual probability of the event you’d be betting on. How can you know that? Obviously, the odds are not set randomly, bookmakers have complex systems and multiple analysts who work on setting the odds and in most cases the odds fairly represent the probability, plus there’s the vig, which means that the odds should be in the favour of the bookies, in most cases. The last phrase is the key here, in most cases doesn’t mean always.

So, your goal should be to identify those situation where the odds don’t match the probability, i.e. when something is more likely to happen than the odds suggest. This might seem impossible, or too difficult. It is not impossible, but we won’t lie you that it is easy. In order to determine whether an even is more likely to happen than the odds suggest, you must develop your own strategy of determining what are the odds, or the probability for something to happen. How do you do that in the first place?

Don’t Go For The Big Score

It can be incredibly tempting to bet on long odds. Parlays/Accumulators/Combo bets are an example of an extremely popular bet that pays out long odds.

This is where you link several bets together that must all be correct in order to win. For example betting on the result of several matches in an esports tournament.

As general rule, choosing the winner of a single matchup is incredibly difficult, so choosing 5 or 6 together is exceptionally difficult, with a higher potential for something to go wrong that will potentially destroying your bet.

More often than not the increased odds of these types of bet do not reflect the reduced probability of it paying off, and so there is no value in making the bet.

You should choose the markets that you bet on carefully. Winning a little per bet will add up over time and is much more likely to make you money in your e-sports betting in the long run.

What Next?

You’ve now covered all the bases in our esports betting beginners guide, which means you’re well on the way to making your first esports bet (if you haven’t already).

In fact why not click on one of our bonuses right now and get a great offer to start you off?

If you’d like to learn a bit more before making that bet then check out our game review guides and our bookmaker reviews right now to get detailed analysis of the best esports games and bookmakers available to you.

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